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The State: Spitzer Seizes Albany Stage
By HENRY STERN
A war is a terrible thing to lose.
Regardless of one’s opinion as to the merits of invading Iraq in 2003, there is wide feeling, based on reality that the aftermath of the initial invasion has gone badly, both for the United States and the Iraqi people. In 2004, the people trusted the President to win the war, and the alternative was the hapless dweeb Kerry. By 2006, time had run out, and the American people clearly voted for change.
The irony is that just as the cost of war is borne largely by troops who had nothing to do with starting it, its political cost is being borne by long-time Republican members of Congress, who had no significant role in the President’s war policy or the way it was carried out. Rumsfeld’s forced resignation signals a break in the iron triangle of the President, Vice President and Defense Secretary. The anointing of a successor in the same news cycle as the departure of the incumbent usually indicates some level of displeasure with the services rendered and the advice offered by the retiring official. In this case, the President’s announcement that he would nominate former CIA chief Robert M. Gates indicates that the decision to change Defense Secretaries preceded the election.
Eliot Spitzer’s landslide victory invests him with moral authority to proceed vigorously with his agenda for reform, which has not yet been defined precisely. However, the problems and pitfalls are so apparent that what has to be done is not difficult to discern. We hope that Governor-elect Spitzer will have the political skills to deal with the proprietors of the snake pit in Albany, which encompasses a great deal of a state government. On Spitzer ride the hopes of many New Yorkers, disillusioned by a generation of stagnation.
Citizens concerned about reform should recognize that the ascension of Governor-elect Spitzer provides a rare opportunity to change Albany. Party leaders supported him in part because Tom Suozzi’s proposals were even more radical, and Suozzi’s contempt for the supine legislature and its leaders more obvious. Politicians love to bask in the glow of winners, and often do not let ideology stand in the way of their magnetic attraction to stars larger than themselves.
We must comment on the pathetic way the children of Albany are treating their former playmate, Alan Hevesi. He was caught, twice, with his hand in the cookie jar, but many of his colleagues’ fingers are stickier than his. Watch the sheep snub Hevesi, unless they get a sign from their leaders that he has been koshered.
We note that Pataki backed off from the impeachment trial on the pretext David Kelley gave him that rules of procedure are not in place. That problem can be remedied instantly by applying existing state rules for similar proceedings. By the way, although lynching is shameful, many of the people who were lynched were guilty of the original offense. The outrage comes over the cruel, arbitrary and illegal penalty. Lynching was and is a horror, but it does not mean that those lynched were innocent.
Pataki wisely left the matter to his successor, why should he clean up the mess for Spitzer? The governor-elect had no problem with his Ph.D. running mate until the misuse of the chauffeur was leaked to J. Christopher Callaghan, who properly ran with it because it was all he had. Callaghan, by the way, is not the bumpkin he was depicted as by the media. He should, however, have prepared much more thoroughly for his NY 1 debate with Hevesi. You never get a second chance to make a first impression.
The Hevesi case is troublesome because he has unquestionably done wrong. The issue is whether his error should be allowed to override the will of the majority of the electorate that voted for him, with knowledge of his problem.
At this point, we are 46 days from Monday, January 1, 2007 - the Day One on which we are told that everything changes. We trust that the governor-elect’s staff is working hard to get the rocket ready for liftoff. Will there be ‘shock and awe’? Will Spitzer’s first hundred days be comparable to the start of FDR’s administration in 1933? As time passes, will any other comparisons of the two men emerge? We suspect the governor-elect has given the matter some thought.
You should know that Franklin D. Roosevelt was the fourth and most recent governor of New York State who became president of the United States (the first three were Martin Van Buren, Grover Cleveland and TR). Since FDR won, other later governors tried. Dewey (twice), Rockefeller (who got to be vice president), and Averell Harriman. In December 1991, Mario Cuomo left a chartered plane waiting to take him to New Hampshire at the Albany airport. This year, George Pataki is making his way through the tall corn of Iowa, with an eye on the 2008 Republican primary.
There must be something in the Albany air that makes the governors want to leave it, and what more respectable habitation is there for them to occupy than the White House? We ask why should the Empire State have only three presidential candidates, Senator Clinton, the Democrat, Mayor Giuliani, the Republican, and Mayor Bloomberg, the independent? Governor-elect Spitzer will not be in the mix until 2012, when he will only be 53. We look to the future.
Starquest@NYCivic.org
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A Strong Wind Is Blowing
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| Joseph Mercurio
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By
JOSEPH MERCURIO
A strong wind blew across the country and lots of Republicans fell, especially more conservative ones. In New York State, the Republican defeat was so big that Assemblyman Denny Farrell stepped down as State Democratic Chair, saying that he could not top the positive change that occurred on his watch. The new governor will likely appoint a successor from Long Island or the Erie County area. For the first time in most people’s memories, the state’s Democrats have all five statewide elected offices.
As big as the win for Democrats was, it could have been bigger. Partisan gerrymandering and the fabled Republican micro-targeted 72 Hour GOTV (Get Out The Vote) plan cut into the victory in Congressional races nationally and in the state. Nonetheless, the Democrats reversed the margin of control in the House, took control of the Senate, picked up six governors and the Republicans lost control of 10 state houses.
Even with the Democratic State Senate campaign committee going to sleep in the spring, Republican state Senator Spano has gone down to defeat and Democratic Senator Klein survived in a district drawn for his Republican predecessor. Gerrymandering and organization saved House Republicans upstate, as the Democrats only captured one open seat and unseated two incumbents.
Now that local House Republicans are in the minority nationally and will lose committee chairs and the ability to bring home the bacon, Democratic leaders expect to pick up three, four or more seats here next time, when Democratic turnout will be even higher, since it’s a presidential year. Democratic leaders expect to pick up state Senate seats for the same reason.
Conservatives did not just lose seats, they also lost issues. There were loads of ballot measures up where they also did poorly. Efforts to restrict in some way a woman’s right to choose went down in every state where it was on the ballot, while increases in the minimum wage were approved all over the country. In New York it may be time to end cross party endorsements.
Nationally, at least four people who have been mentioned as future presidential candidates crashed and burned; and others spent this year’s campaign supporting candidates who went down to defeat. As the Republican Party collapsed in New York State, the presidential aspirations of Governor Pataki diminished, because he left the party here in a shambles.
Giuliani spent the campaign ingratiating himself to Republican leaders and his party’s right wing base, but most of the candidates who he spoke for will not be in office should he run. He will have to spend 2007 reorganizing if he plans to run for president. Mayor Bloomberg on the other hand had more success cherry-picking progressives who had a better chance of winning, which improves his standing in national Republican circles. He can now use 2007 to find more friends nationally should he run for president, while he vies for control of the state party with Speaker Bruno.
Statewide Democrats did superbly. Spitzer and Hillary racked up historic wins and both Cuomo and Hevesi had convincing substantial victory margins. Hevesi did so well in fact that googoos (good government types) will have a hard time making a case against him now that the people have spoken so clearly. After all, how could they say, for example, that the NYC Council should not overturn term limits because the people have spoken and now argue for taking the decision of who should be the Comptroller out of the people’s hands. Expect to see Hevesi stay in office, helping his friends and remembering those who walked away from him.
The only questions that remain are: Who will Spitzer appoint to run the government? The beginnings look like a hunt for the best and the brightest, but expect it to also include incumbent state and city legislators who move to the executive branch, thus creating special elections next year. What major projects will begin? Look for quick starts on projects like the Second Avenue Subway, Ground Zero, Governors Island, Moynihan Station, and the new Tapanzee Bridge, not to mention Congressman Jerry Nadler’s rail freight tunnel getting started. There will be increased economic development upstate and expect school aid for NYC to get real money.
Will someone take the leadership of the Democratic State Senate Campaign Committee and begin the process and do locally for New York what Senator Chuck Schumer did nationally? Will Bloomberg becomes the leader of the state’s Republicans funding it like Rockefeller to increase the standing of progressives, while reducing the influence of the conservative wing? Does Hillary’s campaign for president begin or will a leadership slot in the US Senate look too good?
Joseph Mercurio teaches at NYU graduate Campaign Management Program, is a Director of the American Association of Political Consultants, and president of National Political Services, Inc. |
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Not4Publication.com by Dom Nunziato |
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