....January 11, 12:42 PM
 
 
 
The Primary Focus: Presidential Politics

By MICHAEL SCHENKLER

I write this on Saturday. The Primary season begins Tuesday in New Hampshire. You’re reading this a few days later.

Yes, the Iowa caucus mattered – big time. However, I was raised on politics not really buying the grass roots but social Iowa caucus process as equal to or indicative of the political process of going to the voting booth and pulling a lever for your guy (or gal).

And while I set out writing this to make predictions, there is no one name here. I believe however, that the winner – if there is a clear one — of the New Hampshire Democratic Primary will be the next President of the United States.

Well, almost.

New Hampshire will either right the Clinton ship and make it almost invincible, or put the irreversible wind of change at the back of the Obama frigate. A real narrow win for either, and we could wind up at Super Duper Tuesday– with 23 primaries including New York held on Feb 5.

If the knock-out punch is not thrown in New Hampshire, both Hillary and Barack have the funds to play effectively until that day which will decide about half the presidential electors. Time is short between this writing
and New Hampshire and the Barack buzz is growing.

It is a potential seminal moment in United States history where for the first time since 1960, “the torch may be passed to a new generation.” Barack Obama embodies the change. For the first time in American politics, a black man – or if you prefer, a minority of color – is before the American electorate, not as a child of the civil rights movement. His ethnicity, the years of inequality and oppression of the minorities, is not his issue. He is there having achieved equality as a member of a generation that no longer is tied to the past national racial upheaval. Barack Obama is a new American. He is the future.

Hillary Clinton is not dead. And by no means is Bill, or his magic. A consummate politician, with the past President’s charisma, a network of professionals and above all the depth of experience required to steer the ship of state through the troubled international waters of our time, Hillary has the experience. The seminal moment of electing a woman is as momentous, if not more so than electing a black man.

John Edwards is toast – he was before he got in. Bill Richardson, the other hanger-on is playing for the No. 2 spot.

Hillary has the lead at this very moment. Barack, the momentum. That could all change in New Hampshire. If, by the time you read this, Hillary had won New Hampshire by 5 percent or more, it is the beginning of the end for Obama. He may stay in until Feb 5, but will be beaten in a large portion of the other races and drop out of the race on Feb 6. A clear Obama victory in New Hampshire will build the momentum and quickly be followed by several others, building up to the crescendo of Super Duper where he will under those circumstances prevail.

The Republicans are in disarray. Huckabee, who fails to accept the separation of church and state provided by our constitution, cannot be sold to this nation but is embraced by the fundamentalist Republicans who have handed the Republicans their last two victories.

I believe that Mitt Romney has also failed on the religion issue coming up short when measured against the nation’s first Catholic President, John F. Kennedy’s position: “I do not speak for my church on public matters—and the church does not speak for me.”

Romney’s Waterloo will be New Hampshire where John McCain may be reborn.

Yes, the Dems will beat the Republicans for the White House – please let Mike Huckabee be their candidate – the differences should then be crystal clear to everyone.
John McCain would be the GOP’s strongest option, but he will lose on his support for the war.

So look only one month from now to Feb 6 as the day where we will know who the candidates from both parties will be. Look to New Hampshire as the day where the momentum for Feb 5 will be determined.

The real prediction: On Jan. 20, 2009, a new president will receive the oath of office. This Democrat will be heralded as an agent of change and ceiling shatterer. Getting the nation out of the war in Iraq, fixing a broken economy, repairing terrible image damage throughout the world community, universal healthcare, and uniting a divided nation will be the 2009 resolutions to a nation

hoping not to be disappointed again.

Oh, then there’s Mike Bloomberg . . .

MSchenkler@QueensTribune.com

 
 
How Our Officials Did in ‘07; Their Prospects for ‘08

By Henry J. Stern

For most of us, it was not a bad year, unless we were in subprime mortgages.  When we zero in on New York’s state and city officials, we find mixed results. For Gov. Eliot Spitzer, the year was a minus.  You know why.  

For State Comptroller DiNapoli and State Attorney General Cuomo, the year was a plus.  They showed themselves to be competent and businesslike, and they avoided embarrassing actions and impolitic statements.  DiNapoli, in co-operation with the Spitzer administration, issued reform proposals for the investment of state funds and the identification of intermediaries, while Cuomo appointed reformers, pursued student loan companies, and put state agency files on his Web site. Also, he didn’t trample on anyone’s rights..

With regard to the state legislature, the year showed a solid plus for Speaker Silver, whose role as ruler of the assembly was enhanced by the governor’s missteps, and the Speaker’s respect for the views of the Democratic conference on the Comptroller issue. In the bitter public conflict between the governor and the senate leader, Silver appeared to be a force for restraint, or at least the tamping down of personal abuse by the antagonists.
Senate leader Bruno had what must be considered a good year; he was not indicted for any of the offenses linked to his name, and he may never be charged, nor may his commercial activities be deemed crimes.  He seriously embarrassed the governor over Troopergate, turning the lemon of his alleged misuse of state planes into lemonade.  He will continue this pursuit in 2008, when the courts will decide issues arising from the chase, such as executive privilege, the extent of subpoena powers, and the destruction of records, if that happened.

Bruno did not pass much legislation, but that was never much of a concern.  The Senate did approve a stand-alone pay increase for judges, which may have been prescient.  Bruno was unwise, however, to call Silver a “wimp”.  There are a number of issues with Silver, but wimpiness is not one of them.

In city affairs, the year was a big plus for Mayor Bloomberg, who is becoming a national figure.  Whether he runs for President or not, he is increasingly better known throughout the country.  The city was again governed without scandal, and the mayor’s appointments were impressive, particularly for an administration which will end in two years.  One can differ with the mayor on particular issues, even important ones, but still recognize the solid work that he has done, particularly in crime and social services.  He has been generous to parks, and has repaired relations with the City Council with the invaluable assistance of Speaker Christine Quinn, who is seeking his job because term limits take her out of the Council in 2009.  She does not compete with the mayor, because term limits and his own volition will take him out in two years, and possibly sooner if he should be elected to another office.

Comptroller Bill Thompson, a mayoral candidate, spent the year issuing reports, many critical of the city administration.  That is what comptrollers do for a living, even if they like the mayor.  Thompson has not been antagonistic, and clearly seeks the good will of all.  He took initiatives in restricting city investments in companies whose policies are deemed anti-social or anti-environmental, or who deal with regimes of which we disapprove.  It is difficult to evaluate these initiatives objectively, but they sound good to most people. He sponsors regular congratulatory events with various ethnic groups. He got a break when Bronx BP Carrion switched to running for Comptroller.

Congressman Anthony Weiner, also an active candidate, is making the rounds of the boroughs in addition to his Congressional duties.  He is generally supportive of the mayor but differs with him on congestion pricing, a controversial aspect of PlaNYC 2030.  He has adopted the Schumeresque practice of bringing issues to public attention in which the side he takes is clearly the correct one.  He ran an unexpectedly strong race in the Democratic mayoral primary in 2005, then not contesting the vote count, thus allowing Bronx BP Ferrer to oppose Mayor Bloomberg unilaterally.

Another mayoral candidate, John Catsimatidis, owner of Gristede’s, is seeking to duplicate the Bloomberg victory in 2001.  He has enrolled in the Republican Party and will seek their nomination.

Apart from full-page ads in weekly newspapers, expressing his views on public issues, he has not yet embarked on a public campaign.

Under the electoral clock for the city of New York, the three city wide officials, five borough presidents and 51 council members come up every four years, one year after the presidential election.  At this point, their terms are half over, with two years to go.  State legislators are elected in every even-numbered year, so they too are half way through their two-year terms today.  Look for some switching between state and city officials, in part to avoid the effects of municipal term limits.

We look forward to 2008, and more substantive comment on public issues, particularly ethical questions, in the year ahead.  New Year’s is hardly the time to talk about the ethical deficiencies of our elected officials, but they have not gone away.

Happy New Year.

StarQuest@NYCivic.org

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