....August 18, 1:12 PM
 
 
   
The Mayoral Race – Or Is It?

By MICHAEL SCHENKLER

Let me move backwards. Come November, Mike Bloomberg will be easily re-elected to office unless something amazing happens after the Democratic Party rivals unite and really work together. And should that happen, the Democratic candidate could then only hope to be competitive with a Republican Mayor in our Democratic town.

Don’t count on it happening. Although he has critics, Bloomberg has done much to establish himself as a fine chief executive for our City. And the major reason the four Democratic contenders and their supporters are criticizing him is because they hope something they throw out there will have traction. After the Primary and likely run-off, the attacks on Mayor Mike will come from a single person and the Democratic candidate will be under the same scrutiny as the accomplished Mayor.

Of note is the fact that with the field of four after Mike, he still maintains a substantial lead in the polls – one that would indicate he will be re-elected by more votes than any Republican Mayor in the history of our City – even Rudy.

But we can’t tell the story of the last lap until we get there. And right now there is a Primary horse race that has been, well somewhat boring – no, make that very boring. And after the Primary, we likely face a divisive Democratic run-off between the top two Dems unless one can capture 40 percent in the Primary.

With a lot of “what ifs” in front of us, we have the same field of four which emerged way back when. And although we really hope for an exciting election season, we’re having trouble keeping our eyes focused on the race, if open at all.

Here’s my view of the Democratic candidates in the order in which they are presently polling:

1) Freddy Ferrer, former Bronx Borough President and twice before Mayoral candidate who spent the past four years in oblivion at a think tank, and seemingly has not suffered much in the name recognition or popularity category. He started the race real close to that 40 percent magical mark. But since re-emerging as a candidate has managed to seriously put his foot in his mouth saying there was no crime in the shooting of Amadiu Diallo. He has seemingly climbed back somewhat from that alienation of black voters and others by keeping his head down and keeping out of the line of fire and limelight. Recently, he decided to go after the Mayor on the Homeland Security issue. Sorry, Freddy, perhaps you can score points on compassion, but you’ll never convince the voters that you’re the better and safer manager. Freddy’s best tactic – stay hidden and he’ll be in the run-off or better. If he gets a real big Latino turnout and everyone else is lulled into staying home, lightning could strike.

2) C. Virginia Fields, facing term limits as Manhattan Beep, had nowhere to go and seeing a race void of women or blacks, threw her hat into a ring which seems to be over her head -- she could be trying to claim Charlie Rangel’s seat when he retires. She took a lot of heat over some photo manipulation on a campaign piece, mishandled firing a campaign consultant and hasn’t been able to raise the dough. Her numbers are headed in the wrong direction and is in danger of relinquishing the second spot in the run-off to Giff’s spending -- but can still make the run-off.

3) Gifford Miller, the young, brash Council Speaker has attempted to parlay his four years heading the City Council with whatever portion of the City budget he could glom for political use to further his personal campaign.
He has spent the City’s money while raising and banking fortunes from those who did business with the City. He now sits atop a huge pile of dough squirreled away and has let loose a media campaign to buy his way into the run-off. I just saw his first commercial where he reminds us he’s young. He looks young, sounds young and the gazillions of taxpayer funds won’t buy him integrity or credibility.

4) Anthony Weiner, the Queens/Brooklyn Congressman who reminds us of his mentor Chuck Schumer is driven and bright. Of all the candidates, he has focused most on the issues and attempted to run the campaign on intellect and ideas not personality. It appears that no one is listening. As long as the people are yawning, Weiner’s solid presentations will remain with him at the bottom of the heap. He needs a lightning rod if anyone is going to pay attention. Such energy is only generated by the likes of a Clinton, Schumer, or a Bloomberg catastrophe – it ain’t gonna happen. Anthony has won our admiration for a good campaign that has gone nowhere. Perhaps he has done it to earn a shot at replacing President Hillary in the Senate in ’09.

Why does it appear that a City with an overwhelming Democratic registration will elect a Republican Mayor for the fourth straight time?

Look to those responsible for building and leading the party.

Michael Schenkler can be reached via this contact form.

 
 
Why Do Elephants Prefer Jeanine Pirro To Ed Cox?

By HENRY STERN

The race between Senator Hillary Clinton and Westchester District Attorney Jeanine Pirro, is not an area where in which we have inside information, but because of the importance of the election and its effect on the Presidential campaign, we venture observations.

Hillary Clinton has been a first-rate Senator for New York. She is both brilliant and disciplined. She tells as much of the truth as she can, and people who know politics realize that is a decent standard. On the other hand, there is a lot she won’t tell, and some things she can’t tell. Many of those omissions are not really her fault.
They will be forgiven by people who believe her election is in the national interest. The unforgiving would not support her if she were Mother Teresa, a future saint with whom she is unlikely to be confused.

The Senator’s ongoing ideological migration from the left to the center of her party (still to the left of middle America) is due in part to her sensitivity to the American people and their core beliefs. Howard Dean makes a perfect foil for her; he inadvertently serves Hillary’s purpose by making her appear moderate compared with him.

One problem for Senator Clinton and the voters is that no one can be certain what she really believes underneath the protection provided by precisely prepared public position papers. She is highly intelligent (most people know she is smart but don’t realize just how smart, which is all right because they could be frightened off) and she is so careful and verbally gifted so that her views on a subject can evolve without her appearing to flip-flop. Still, we do not know what she would actually do were she not constrained by the political reality of satisfying the heart of America in pursuit of 270 electoral votes.

Jeanine Pirro is attractive, ambitious and moderate. She is hindered by her husband’s sins, which are more serious than her opponent’s husband’s indiscretions. But even if Albert Pirro were a Boy Scout, his wife would still have an almost impossible race because Mrs. Clinton is wiser, knows far more about issues large and small, and has given distinguished service for five years, demonstrating her ability to reach out to people and her concern for their well being. What can Ms. Pirro do or say in the next 15 months to match this towering talent?

One need not be paranoid to see the hand of Karl Rove in this ostensibly New York decision. As a supporter of a Republican in 2008 (Jeb Bush, if he can get away with it), Rove wants to minimize the strength of a rival. By sending a woman to oppose Hillary, the race will be seen to some extent as a catfight, rather than as a warm-up for the Presidential race. The selection of Ms. Pirro is an attempt to undermine Senator Clinton’s probable victory.
And her matrimonial baggage will provide an excuse for the Republicans if she is overwhelmed at the polls.

Who cares whether Mrs. Clinton will serve two years or six? She promised in 2000 to serve a full term, and kept her word. In her second term she is entitled to seek promotion.

If she should be elected President, that would only be helpful to the State of New York, which has suffered through Federal funding formulas that favor other states.
It is an honor to have your Senator seriously considered for the highest office in the land. To project that as a negative is ridiculous.

Ed Cox would be a more authentic alternative to Senator Clinton’s liberal philosophy, but he is not famous in his own right. The reputation of his late father- in-law, President Nixon, would not be particularly helpful or harmful. Cox is a gentleman, a successful attorney, and quite knowledgeable about government.If Cox runs and loses, the race could seem to have been decided by ideological differences. Since Pirro is viewed as a liberal (by national GOP standards), her loss will not be viewed as a blow to the conservative movement.

Running for the Senate did not do a lot of good for former Congressman Rick Lazio, the loser in 2000. He lost his House seat, had his 15 minutes of fame as a counterpoint to Hillary, and after being defeated sank back into the obscurity whence he came. Note that Lazio did not receive a significant position in the Bush administration after his loss.

The Senate contest will be the race of the year in 2006, competitive with Governor Schwarzenegger’s campaign for re-election (if he runs) and the Governorship of New York. The cost of these campaigns will approach, if not surpass, $100 million each. The contests all over the country will be a fund-raisers’ delight. They will probably distract millions of people from important Senate and Congressional races with less prominent candidates in other states.
Henry Stern can be reached at:

Starquest@NYCivic.org

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Michael Schenkler can be reached via this contact form.