....January 3, 1:20 PM
 
 
 
Past Predictions: Wishes For The Future

By MICHAEL SCHENKLER

My first column of last year, Predictions For ’07, contained some perceptive, accurate calls. It also contained its share of off-base prognostications. I look back, share and comment on several that struck me when I reread them – one year later.

“In 2007, the war in Iraq will remain at the forefront of world and national news. Violence in Iraq will spike briefly and we’ll soon go back to the same ol’, same ol’. George Bush will be the not-so-silent minority preaching that we can win the war and cannot quit. At the beginning of the year, there will be an increase of American troops in Iraq.

“As the year progresses, the Democratic-controlled Congress will become more and more proactive in demanding a long-range plan, immediate troop reduction and a way out of the war. Some, if not many, Republicans will join Democrats in calling for Bush to ‘change the course.’
“As year-end approaches, with mounting death toll, continued violence, greater civil Iraqi unrest, a less than cooperative Iraqi government, the American people will begin to take to the streets in protests reminiscent of Viet Nam. Polarization in Congress will reach a fever pitch with anti-war members threatening to cut military funding.”
Today’s thought: I’m still waiting.

“Governor Spitzer, who by the third month of the year, will have demonstrated to all in Albany who is boss, will be as aggressive in the Executive Mansion as he was in the AG’s office. His new broom will be sweeping by Day One. Hevesi will be gone, Joe Bruno’s power waning due to the FBI investigation into influence peddling, and the Republican Senate under attack – Republican Senator Mike Balboni heading to the Spitzer administration, will have relinquished his seat which will go Democratic leaving the Guv’s party just two seats shy of control.

“. . . Spitzer will pick his fight carefully but make it clear that the government chokehold of Assembly Speaker Sheldon Silver is a thing of the past. Spitzer’s overwhelming mandate will be used by him early to establish who has the power.

“The year will end with Eliot Spitzer having changed the Albany Culture (amen!) and he will be successfully running New York addressing the bigger problems including the budget deficit, Medicaid fraud, unfunded mandates and education funding in the City. His short range achievements and long range planning will be a refreshing change for a longtime moribund State government. Lobbyists will be marginalized. And government will begin to take on new meaning – serving the people.”
Today’s thought: Oops! I’m still waiting.

Some of last year’s quickies:
“The City Council will continue to struggle with their individual futures as the term limit reality begins to set in for 38 of the 51 members. . . Term limits will quietly become accepted by the Council members as they all start scurrying for new gigs as 2009 approaches.”
Today’s thought: Amen!

Isaiah Thomas will deservedly get fired as the Knicks prove they fight better than play. Baseball steroid abuse will result in several big-name indictments.
Today’s thought: I’m still waiting

And finally:
“And the year will end somewhere on the Upper East Side of Manhattan, with Mike Bloomberg sitting with Kevin Sheekey, who will encourage that . . . the opportunity exists for the popular Mayor, who by now has traveled the nation speaking out on issues that matter to him, to come right down the middle of a nation disenchanted with both major parties and capture the minds of a majority of Americans.
And 2007 will turn to 2008 with Mike Bloomberg in the national spotlight as he weighs the possibilities, probabilities and the investment of half a billion dollars of personal funds – he won’t accept campaign contributions – to remake American politics and do for the country what he has done for our City.”
Today’s thought: Hmm! I’m waiting.

May the New Year bring only good news to you and yours.
MSchenkler@QueensTribune.com

 
 
NY’s Lieutenant Governor: Odd History, Odd Job

By HENRY STERN

As the old year becomes the new one, it is time to step aside and look at what has taken place in government.
The principal news, of course, is the governor’s fall from grace.  We do not know when a public official’s popularity has ever declined by 50 percent in his first year in office.  What is unusual about the Spitzer coverage in the press, is that scarcely a word has been written in defense of his conduct during his first year.  Writers do express different levels of hope for next year. We are on the optimistic side, predicting that he will survive, but with great embarrassment, the proceedings initiated by his nemesis, Senator Joseph L. Bruno.  Every day Bruno’s long-heralded indictment is delayed gives the Senator another day for his minions to chop away at the Governor.  Erased computer tapes mean obstruction of justice, if that can be proven.  Meanwhile, if Bruno is not to be indicted, the Justice Department ought to say so.
Spitzer has, in recent months received advice on how to be more popular with others.  ”If you want to get along, go along.”   So he has refrained from invective, and proclaimed his friendship with legislators and lobbyists alike, seeking their support for whatever it is he still wants to do.   Fortunately or not, in the cold world of politics, very few, if any, people or organizations confer gratuitous benefits on others without the expectation of reward.  And those generous souls who may give money to politicians for idealistic motives like promoting the public interest are often the first to become disillusioned when the officeholder they have helped elect does not live up to their expectations.
Spitzer’s hand-picked Lieutenant Governor, a second-generation politician generally regarded as a good fellow, has avoided serious controversy during his first year. In fact, it is difficult for any LG to initiate substantial projects, and much of his/her work consists of avoiding embarrassment by not trying to overshadow or second guess the governor.  In that effort he succeeded. 
Under Gov. Hugh Carey, Mary Anne Krupsak served as LG, a position she lost when she opposed Carey in the 1978 primary.  Under Gov. George Pataki, two women served as LGs, Betsy McCaughey (Ross at the time) in his first term, and Judge Mary Donohue in his next two.  Ms. McCaughey, a health expert, has gone on to do valuable work heading a Committee to reduce hospital deaths caused by infections.
 David Paterson is the first African American LG to be elected. His father, a distinguished lawyer named Basil A. Paterson, was defeated for LG when he was the running mate of Mr. Justice Arthur Goldberg in 1970. Another black candidate, H. Carl McCall, was defeated by Al Del Bello in the Democratic primary for LG in 1982. DelBello, who was elected along with Mario Cuomo, quit after 25 months.
The usual way for an LG to become governor is if the incumbent dies, resigns or is impeached.  The last LG elected governor on his own was Mario Cuomo in 1982. Before that, Herbert H. Lehman was elected governor in 1932 when Governor (F.D.) Roosevelt sought higher office. More LGs advance at midyear than on Jan. 1.
Four men in the 20th century became governors by filling vacancies.  In 1910, when Gov. Charles Evans Hughes was appointed Chief Justice of the United States by President William Howard Taft, Horace White of Syracuse filled the office for the balance of the year.  In 1913, when Gov. William J. Sulzer was impeached by the state assembly and convicted by the state senate and removed from office, ostensibly for failing to report his campaign contributions accurately, and committing and suborning perjury, but in fact for defying the orders of Tammany boss Charles F. Murphy by trying to appoint commissioners on the merits. Sulzer was succeeded by Martin H. Glynn of Albany.  Tammany had elected Sulzer in 1912, and experienced buyer’s remorse when the governor of New York State took his responsibilities seriously, rather than take orders from political leaders as to whom to appoint to state offices.
Only one governor of New York State died in office.  He was DeWitt Clinton, nephew of the first governor, George Clinton. He was succeeded by lieutenant governor Nathaniel Pitcher, who served the balance of that year.
The other two LGs assumed the governorship under more tranquil circumstances. Gov. Herbert H. Lehman, who had held the office for 10 years, 1933-42, resigned on Dec. 2 of his final year to become director of foreign relief and rehabilitation operations for the US Department of State.  LG Charles A. Poletti filled in the last 29 days of Lehman’s term and became New York’s first (and only until Mario Cuomo) Italian-American governor. Poletti’s name now graces a large power plant in Astoria.
On December 17, 1973, Gov. Nelson A. Rockefeller resigned his post with a year and two weeks remaining in his fourth four-year term.  His purpose was to give LG Malcolm Wilson a year or so on the job before he faced the voters in 1974. Wilson, an able fellow, lost to Congressman Hugh Carey in 1974, which you may recall was the year of Watergate.
LG Paterson is unlikely to be elevated by either the impeachment or the criminal conviction of the incumbent governor.   President Nixon thought he was buying insurance against impeachment when he nominated Gerald Ford to be vice president, on the theory that no one could see Ford as a President of the United States.  The best thing the new President said on attaining the high office was: “I’m a Ford, not a Lincoln.”  At birth, he was not even a Ford but a King.  His name was changed to Ford when Gerald R. Ford, Sr. married his birth-mother.  A similar chain of events occurred when President Clinton’s biological father was killed in an automobile accident and his widowed mother married a Roger Clinton.  In today’s contest, Barack Obama’s parents separated when he was 2 years old.  Whether these family situations had any bearing on the ambitions of the children is beyond our knowledge.  But it certainly didn’t prevent them from choosing careers in public life.
StarQuest@NYCivic.org

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