....December 30, 12:40 PM
 
 
 
Political Predictions for 2010 &
A Happy New Year To All
By MICHAEL SCHENKLER

Follow me on Twitter @QueensTribune

Sure this is flippant.

No one should take themselves seriously enough to actually predict the future. One can, based on knowledge and logic, draw some conclusions and share them to inspire others to think and play.

Play along and feel free to let me know your predictions by emailing them to me.

A kid from Queens, raised in Holliswood and who resided in Douglaston when first married, will become the next Governor of New York State. The son of State’s 52nd Governor will easily become the the State’s 56th Governor when David Paterson bows out of the Democratic race for some ambassadorial job once it is clear to him he has no chance against Andrew Cuomo. Republican candidate Rick Lazio will never mount enough of a campaign to be considered a threat. Andrew Cuomo will begin 2011 by taking the oath of office as Governor of NYS and as the symbol of reform targetting the Albany culture of corruption as a top priority of his administration. We wish him well.

In spite of efforts by Cuomo, Tom DiNapoli from neighboring Great Neck, will persevere as the Democratic candidate for Comptroller and will narrowly retain his position in the General Election.

In an unbalanced geographic ticket, Nassau County DA Kathleen Rice will become the Democratic Attorney General Candidate to replace Cuomo.

With both U.S. Senate seats up for election, all the real GOP players will run away from challenging Chuck Schumer and focus on the seat occupied by Kirstin Gillibrand appointed by Paterson to replace Hillary Clinton. The George Pataki, Ed Cox and Peter King – Rudy has taken himself out – merry-go-round will stop with NYS GOP Chairman, son-in-law of Richard Nixon emerging as the GOP challenger.

On the Democratic side, NYC Comptroller and Dem Mayoral candidate Bill Thompson will challenge Gillibrand and become the Dem candidate with an overwhelming downstate win. Thompson will narrowly beat Cox and become the first person of color to represent New York State in the US Senate.

Following the year of upsets of incumbents, members of Congress, the Assembly and the State Senate will begin campaigning early, work their Districts hard and many face serious challenges.

All incumbent Queens Congress members will be returned to office but several will be reelected by closer margins than ever before.

Queens Assemblywoman Ann Margaret Carrozza (26th AD) will be upset in Democratic Primary by an underfunded Steve Behar. Her abysmal attendance record, the fact that she moved out of the district and her lack of performance will allow the neophyte Behar to overtake her. He will eke out a November victory over an aggressive campaign by GOP Veep Vince Tabone.

Assemblyman Andrew Hevesi (28th AD) will receive both a Primary fight and a strong challenge from the Republicans. With his father’s impending indictment in the Comptroller’s Office scandal, which included payoffs for helping clear the Assembly seat for Andrew, the Hevesi’s will be in battle on several fronts. The inability to raise funds as a result of the scandal coupled with abandonment by many party regulars could cause this longtime Forest Hill Democratic seat to go Republican.

Assemblymember Marge Markey (30th AD) will be the target of the anti-incumbent movement and receive a strong GOP challenge.

Asemblymember Michelle Titus (31st AD) will face the same anti-incumbent force in the Democratic Primary.

New-comer Assemblyman Mike Miller (38th AD) will receive an aggressive well-funded challenge from Albert Baldeo in this District with a growing Southeast Asian population.

Jose Peralta has already declared his candidacy for Hiram Monserratte’s Senate seat, leaving a vacancy in his 39th Assembly District. Francisco Moya and Luis Rosario will be the two battling in a large field for the position. Moya will prevail.

At the end of the day, of the 18 sitting Assembly members, 14 will be returned to office.

The State Senate will be the focus of the real contested action. With the progressive Dems and the LGBT movement targeting five of the seven Queens Senators all who voted against the Gay Marriage Bill and two seats viewed as potentially vulnerable by the parties in November in the colossal battle to have control of the Senate during a reapportionment year.

Unless Joe Addabbo (15th SD) pledges to change his vote on gay marriage, watch for a search for a gay conservative Republican – uniting the GOP and the proponents of Gay Marriage in this seat — is the surest way for the GOP to pick up a seat in the statewide battle.

Sorry Dems, Frank Padavan (11th SD) is not beatable – especially by Tony Avella, who has alienated more Dems than Padavan. The close election last time was due to the Obama effect.

No other Senate seats will change party hands but look for the following impact of the Gay Marriage vote:

Shirley Huntley (10th SD) will face an aggressive challenge from an LGBT supported candidate. Several candidates have shown well in the past council Primary and one will emerge with the ability to defeat the incumbent if the Primary is one-on-one.

After being threatened with a strong Primary by a driven Eric Gioia, incumbent George Onorato (12th SD) will retire. While Assemblyman Mike Gianaris will flirt with the seat, he will not gamble on being in the minority or losing to Gioia. Eric Gioia will be the next Senator in this Astoria based district.

Hiram Monserrate (13th SD) will be overwhelmed by his district’s large gay population reacting to his anti gay marriage vote and the regular Dems looking to extract retribution for years of renegade behavior. Armed with a misdemeanor assault conviction, the opposition will support Assemblyman Jose Peralta in spite of his own ethical questions. He clearly appears to be the beneficiary of the anti-Hiram movement.

The seven person delegation from Queens will see at least 3 new members elected next year – possibly 4.

While we will continue to write about the need for reform in Albany, the legislative leaders will point the small changes from the election and more cosmetic rules they enact as the false solution to the State’s most serious crisis – an ethical void in Albany.

And the future of the State will rest on the broad shoulders of a kid from Queens, Andrew Cuomo.

Happy New Year!

MSchenkler@QueensTribune.com
Michael Schenkler can be reached via this contact form.
 
 
Sup Ct Mocks ‘Honest Services’ Test Which Bruno Violated

Henry Stern
By HENRY STERN

Just one day after he was convicted in federal court of depriving the public of his “honest services” by taking hundreds of thousands of dollars from people who wanted to do business with NYS agencies, former Senate Majority Leader Joseph L. Bruno was looking at brighter skies.

The fair weather was arriving from Washington D.C., where the Supreme Court appears ready to strike down the sort of anti-corruption law that Bruno was found guilty of violating.

Bruno was convicted by a federal jury in Albany on two counts of failure to provide “honest services.” 

The Supreme Court will decide whether to take Bruno’s case if he loses in the US Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit. 

The news from the High Court is striking, in part because it is almost coincidental with the jury’s decision to convict Bruno. 

Although the justices amused themselves and the public by mocking the vagueness of the phrase “honest services,” it is exceedingly difficult to find a legitimate standard of employee dishonesty which rises to the level of criminality. Embezzlement is surely a crime, as well as larceny and burglary, but drawing the line beyond that is somewhat like specifying just what is pornography.  It was the late Justice Potter Stewart who said: “I know it when I see it.”

There are many cases in which corporate or individual behavior is questionable.  Sometimes business decisions are selfish, cruel, unjust and indecent. They may be based on falsehoods, which may or may not be malicious.  Greedy people may enrich themselves unfairly at the expense of decent men and women.  Should such conduct be considered criminal; who is to make that decision?

This is an issue which is well above my pay grade.  There is a certain merit in having juries make those decisions, but in the absence of standards, how are the juries to be instructed by the judges?

The Bruno case appears to us to be one of clear criminality. The Senator took bribes and sold his washed-up crowbait to his partner for $80,000.  He delivered state business to his co-conspirator.  No matter how low you make the standard of honest service, his conduct falls below it.

What will happen, though, when his case reaches the appellate courts?  Is he to escape punishment because of the vagueness of a statute when his conduct is so clearly over the line that he would be convicted under any standard?  The charges for which Bruno was acquitted may have been more serious than the ones for which he was convicted.  What is likely is that a deadlocked jury compromised by acquitting the senator on most counts, while convicting him of two felonies.

These are issues for the people who write law review articles and are subsequently appointed to the bench, where we, the public, become the beneficiaries of their wisdom and judgment.  If the Court wants to set standards for commercial honesty, they should do so, or set guidelines to which statutes could conform. How many thieves and swindlers will get away with their crimes while the courts figure out how to define different varieties of reprehensible commercial conduct? It is fortunate that Bernie Madoff was not prosecuted for failure to provide his victims with his “honest services.” 

How the Supreme Court’s attitude will affect the ways we deal with commercial crime will probably take years to discover.  We have the gut feeling, however, that Senator Bruno will not see a correctional facility from the inside for a long time, if at all.

At least one thing is clear: we have not seen, heard or read the last of the Bruno case.  Nor has the limping state senate, which lacks any leader.

StarQuest@NYCivic.com

Not4Publication.com by Dom Nunziato
Michael Schenkler can be reached via this contact form.