....October 1, 2:54 PM
 
 
   
Five Incumbents Lose; Top Contests are Runaways


By HENRY STERN

The primary elections in both major parties showed signs of a thaw in the legislative lockdown that has paralyzed progress in the Legislature for at least a decade.

In previous years, the defeat of an incumbent was a rarity, and vacancies in the legislature occurred primary through the happy event of elevation to higher office, or the sad event of the death or imprisonment of the legislator.

This year, two Republican assemblymembers from the Hudson Valley were defeated in primaries. Willis Stephens Jr., a stalwart who had served six terms, lost to a young (28 years old) air force officer, Greg Ball. On the east side of the great river, a promising incumbent, Patrick Manning, lost by 248 votes to Marcus Molinari, the mayor of Tivoli, population 1,175. In addition to having some family problems, Manning pretended in a phone call to be a Molinari consultant so he could get polling information. Although this is not illegal, the deception did not amuse some of the voters.

The Democratic upsets were in Queens, Manhattan and Buffalo. The celebrated Senator Ada Smith of Queens County had previously been stripped of her leadership post in the Senate by Minority Leader David Paterson for various confrontations she had with police officers and staff members, which culminated in criminal proceedings. She lost to Shirley Huntley, a local civic leader, by about 200 votes. In this contest, Senator Smith retained the support of the Queens Democratic organization, which had deserted former Councilman Allan Jennings, who was defeated for renomination last year after sundry acts of sexual harassment.

Assemblywoman Diane Gordon of Brooklyn faces trial in a bribery case for demanding that a builder give her a very nice house in exchange for her supporting his efforts to get construction jobs. This did not, however, impair her standing with her constituents. If she is convicted of a felony, her seat will automatically be vacated, as was the case with her colleague, Clarence Norman.

One incumbent was defeated in Manhattan. Newcomer (39) Brian Kavanagh defeated veteran (67) Sylvia Friedman, who had filled the vacancy created when Steve Sanders, who had been an assemblymember since well before he was Brian’s age, retired to become a lobbyist.

Kavanagh was endorsed by the New York Times, which was probably decisive in the close neighborhood race.

In Buffalo, State Senator Marc Coppola was defeated by city council member Antoine Thompson. Coppola had won an interim term, and was handicapped by the candidacy of his cousin, Albert Coppola, who had briefly held the seat before the election of Byron Brown, who is now Mayor of Buffalo. That is more than you probably want to know about Buffalo Democratic politics, but it completes the tale of the five turnovers in the primaries.

The general election looks like even more of a runaway than the primaries. The Siena poll reports Eliot Spitzer with a 50-point lead over John Faso. The remaining issue is how this projected landslide will affect other contested offices. Senator Clinton need not rely on Spitzer’s coattails, and indeed will be competing with him as to who will roll up the larger percentage of the vote. The record so far is 71 percent, set by Senator Chuck Schumer when he was re-elected in 2004. Does anyone remember the name of his opponent? It was Howard Mills, who is now Superintendent of Insurance for NYS, by appointment of Governor Pataki.

As for the State Comptroller race, Alan Hevesi is considered assured of re-election over J. Christopher Callaghan (now you know).

The only potential contest is for Attorney General, where Andrew Cuomo’s 17-point lead over Jeanine Pirro is considered modest by this year’s standards.

The issue in greatest doubt is whether the Democrats can capture enough State Senate seats to win a majority. The Republicans have controlled the Senate for about 30 years, and gerrymandered it in their favor, just as the Democrats have gerrymandered the State Assembly. Safe seats make obedient lawmakers when the leaders draw the lines.

The presumed certainty of the election result may make the leading candidate act more like an incumbent, avoid making promises he cannot keep, and start in to deal with the issues of a state wallowing in debt, losing jobs and industry, entwined with unenforceable, unaffordable and unattainable judicial mandates, encumbered by “the most dysfunctional legislature in the country,” as proclaimed by the Brennan Center for Justice.

Our legislators are captives of their leaders, but if they were to be emancipated, we have no reason to believe that they would develop the wisdom, judgment, common sense and fiscal responsibility that has so far eluded them. (Again, we make exceptions for the ones we know; but when they all get together things just don’t seem to work out.)

Do not conclude that the situation is hopeless; it is not. What we need is for elected officials of both parties to start thinking of the good of the general public, rather than enhancing the fortunes or protecting the sinecures of their contributors.

“Where there is life, there is hope.” That is how we look at the state’s political and economic future; hoping that new leadership will provide better outcomes.

Starquest@NYCivic.org

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The Season Begins: Is the Tide Moving to the Dems

Joe Mercurio

By JOSEPH MERCURIO

Primary Day in New York State has passed and the first polls at the traditional beginning of the General Election season are in. Truth be told, most of the nation’s local, state and federal elections were decided long ago and are just going through the motions—reapportionment, the nature of media markets, incumbent advantages and corrupt process have made most elections nominal. Now that the silly season in politics is over, what does the beginning of the fall season look like?

In a New York State recent Siena College poll, Spitzer has a 51-point lead, Hevesi beats “Chris Who” by 33 points, Hillary is up 28 points over her opponent, and Cuomo, fresh from a smartly run primary campaign, is up 17 points over the Republican. Callaghan, who is the Republican running for Comptroller, is at 23 percent in a race that has undecided at 21 percent, he is doing better lower down on ballot than Faso, the Republican running for Governor, who gets only 21percent in a contest with 8 percent of voter undecided (Spitzer even has an 8-point lead among Republican voters). So Pirro is likely to be dragged down to defeat by her pro-life running mates.

As population and ideology shifts move the state’s electorate to a deeper blue and to the left, the Conservative Party looks like it is leading the Republican Party to a base vote at below a quarter of the electorate. Yet the national Democrats have not found any of their challengers to House Republicans worthy of financial support and there are very few real contested state legislative races. Quick, name two.

Nationally a Pew Poll headline reads “Democrats Hold Solid Lead; Strong Anti-Incumbent, Anti-Bush Mood.” The Democrats dominate on issues. In the questions that ask who would do a better job on an issue Democrats or Republicans, Democrats score leads of 38 points on the environment, 24 points on health-care, 20 points on energy policy, 18 points on education, 14 points on the economy and 11 points on abortion.

The Republicans lead only on terrorism with a 9-point lead. The Democrats also have a 7-point lead on the war in Iraq.

The Democratic leadership, however, has effectively banned a conversation about issues like guns, gay rights and a woman’s right to choose (even though Republicans are down 2 points on morality and down 3 points on gay rights against Democrats); they have instead chosen to nationalize the election about Bush and his failures in the Iraq war, while the Republican leadership is framing the election on terrorism and working on their turnout problem.

One could only wonder how many Republican seats would be competitive if the Democrats framed the election about what voters think Democrats would do a better job on, since voters think the country is going in the wrong direction by a margin of two to one under Republican control, in virtually every poll. Hopefully individual candidates will do a better job on framing their message than party leaders.

The thing most on the mind of voters is gas prices at 75 percent, but that should change as the season wears on. Next are: the economy, education and war tied at 54 percent; then health care at 53 percent—clearly the four issues that would work for the Democrats. Terrorism at 47 percent is below the mid-point, but it scores high with conservative Republicans at 84 percent and moderate/liberal Republicans, 78 percent who think we are winning the war on terrorism. Clearly the Republicans focusing on this issue could boost turnout for their side.

But is anyone listening? Pew found that among the top news stories voters are watching closely, the war in Iraq received 33% while the death of the ‘croc hunter’ received 30%. Meanwhile, state and local races tied with the JonBenet Ramsey case at 16% interest each.

Most handicappers now give the Democrats a bigger advantage with predictions running at picking up seats but not control in the Senate, picking up a few governor seats and gaining control in the House with possibly 15 to 20 gained and one or two lost by the Democrats. Meanwhile, here in New York, three Republican House members are in the top 50 competitive races nationally.

With all four statewide Democrats doing so well, shouldn’t more down ballot races be competitive? Does the Conservative Party also have undue influence with state and county Democratic leaders? Will women pick up one seat in the House only to lose another?

Joseph Mercurio teaches at New York University, graduate Campaign Management Program, is a Mid-Atlantic Director of the American Association of Political Consultants, and president of National Political Services, Inc.

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