....May 19, 1:52 PM
 
 
   
Elections: The Political Batting Order

Surprises to watch for, ‘05: Tom White, 28th Council. ‘06: Tom Suozzi, Guv; Jeanine Pirro, AG.

By MICHAEL SCHENKLER

The games continue.

And with a political column, we of course refer to the election games that captivate the rooms of our city which used to be smoked-filled, the hangouts – formerly watering holes — across from the seats of government, the newsrooms and the pages they fill, and the phone time of the folks who play pundits for a living or for fun.

It’s election fever in New York and there are so many games being played at once.

We present for your viewing pleasure our first, brief scorecard of the major ones affecting Queens.

The big prize for this year is the mayoral election and Mike Bloomberg is clearly the man to beat. While you may remember reading that he will have a Republican challenge from former Queens Councilman, Tom Ognibene, neither money raised, nor interest shown, would indicate that Ognibene will make a serious effort. On the Democratic side – the party which eats their young – Democratic front-runner former mayoral candidate Freddy Ferrer is having difficulty getting out from under attack by the black community, because of an unfortunate slip of the tongue on the Amadou Diallo case. This has enabled Manhattan Beep C. Virginia Fields to begin to close the gap. An aggressive effort by Queens/Brooklyn Congressman Anthony Weiner has moved him into third place, according to the latest Quinnapiac poll, and Council Speaker Giff Miller, the best funded of the Dems, having not captured the attention he was hoping to, narrowly brings up the rear.

Unless one of the four Dems achieves 40% of the vote in the June Primary, two weeks later, there is a run-off between the top two; the winner to face Bloomberg in the November Election. Barring any huge surprises, Ferrer will clearly be one of those two, with Fields, the only black in the race, leading for the other position. But, Dem insiders whisper that neither will beat the mayor — but in a town as Democratic as ours, it will be close. Also, watch Weiner for a late charge.

Comptroller Bill Thompson will get a free ride back into office and the front-running spot for the next four years as heir apparent to a term-limited Mike Bloomberg – assuming the Mayor’s reelection.

Betsy Gottbaum will again face former civil liberties lawyer Norman Siegal, but he and others are out-monied and outgunned.

It appears to be a free ride for Queens Beep Helen Marshall.

In the City Council, look for the 28th District, presently held by Allan Jennings, as the seat most likely to change hands. With a large handful of candidates – several South Asian — looking to unseat Jennings, the incumbent who was recently censured and punished by the City Council because of sexual harassment charges, former Councilman Tom White appears to be the leader among the challengers.

Bryan Pu-Folkes, a bright, aggressive immigrant attorney activist and Rodolfo Flores are challenging hard-working, grand dame of Jackson Heights, Councilwoman Helen Sears (25th Dis). Jim Gennaro (24th) faces a likely race from Dilip Nath in the Democratic Primary and Renee Lobo in the General Election. While candidates are also talking about challenging Hiram Monserrate, David Weprin, and Melinda Katz, they are all far outclassed by the incumbents.

Due to term limits, the best game in town is the eight-or-so person melee to replace Virginia Fields as Manhattan Beep – we’ll watch with interest, but sadly, it’s not our beat.

At the same time as the players of season 2005 are reaching the front pages, the 2006 season is being played in the backrooms. Senator Hillary is up for re-election in 2006 and the GOP has found Edward Cox, son-in-law of Richard Nixon, to challenge her.

Attorney General Elliot Spitzer, the clear frontrunner for the ‘06 Gubernatorial slot expected to be vacated by a fading George Pataki, can expect a Democratic challenge from aggressive Nassau County Exec Tom Suozzi. Insiders tell us to watch Suozzi breeze to re-election this November, and shortly after taking the oath of office, the man who has led the “Fix Albany” campaign, will declare his candidacy for Governor on Jan. 12 – some sort of magical day for Suozzi who has taken on windmills before.

So far, Alan Hevesi barely has to look over his shoulder as he faces what appears to be an easy re-election for State Comptroller.

In what promises to be the race of giants, a tainted son of Hamlet on the Hudson, Andrew Cuomo, faces former City Public Advocate and perennial candidate Mark Green in the Dem Primary for Attorney General. Assemblymembers Mike Gianaris from Astoria and Westchester’s Richard Brodsky are also in the race. The Republicans are lining up a giant of their own in Westchester DA Jeanine Pirro, who has been responding to recent attacks concerning her husband’s mob connections. The likelihood of a Cuomo — Pirro battle is the stuff political writers thrive on.

And as we look further to the future, the online bookmaker Sportsbook.com has Hillary Clinton as the frontrunner at 6-1 for the 2008 Presidential race.

Stay tuned.

Michael Schenkler can be reached via this contact form.

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Mayor’s Budget: Reflections on a Golden Calf


By HENRY STERN

Mayor Bloomberg, the first businessman-mayor in recent memory, has for the past four years avoided fiscal meltdown through an adroit combination of cost reductions, borrowing and one-shots (funds that come in for one year but are non-recurring).

For his first budget (FY 2003), the mayor secured the consent of the State to allow the city to borrow $1.5 billion on a onetime basis. For FY 2004 an 18 1/2 percent increase in the real estate tax brought in $1billion in its first year. The next year, we were fortunate to receive $744 million from the Port Authority for back rent for our airports, and $621 million as a result of the refinancing of MAC (Municipal Assistance Corporation) bonds. This year it has been the booming real estate market that has come to the rescue. In addition to taxing real estate ownership, the city also taxes real estate transactions.

The mayor deserves credit, however, which he has not widely received, for the actions he has taken over the last 3 1/2 years to reduce the expense budget. The Police Department has shrunk through attrition, yet crime continues to fall. Six firehouses were closed, despite the political cost the mayor incurred. City Hall estimates the budget reductions they initiated total 3.9 billion. As the late Senator Everett McKinley Dirksen (R-Ill.) is known for having said, “A billion here, a billion there, pretty soon it adds up to real money.”

There is no question that good things have happened to New York City in the last four years - for one thing the real estate boom. We have made a substantial recovery from 9/11. There has been a continuing drop in crime, and relative honesty and integrity in local government, which contrasts sharply with the direct bribery of state officials, and the pervasive and pernicious influence of lobbyists and contributors to both state legislators and procurement officers, as well as other Albany decision makers in the executive branch.

What is unfortunately clear is that there is substantial structural imbalance in the budgets of all three levels of government: the United States, the State of New York and the City of New York. The federal imbalance is gigantic, enormous, colossal and immense although not immeasurable. However, they can print money, which is a metaphor for borrowing trillions of dollars, which adds to the national debt. If and when the Chinese and other creditor nations decide not to continue buying our paper, there could be a crisis comparable to the Great Depression of the 1930’s. But there is always hope that the gnomes will find a way to manipulate reality so that the debt can be controlled. After all, if our country went broke, who would buy Chinese goods, even if they are cheap and plentiful.

The State of New York has a constitutional debt limit, which it has circumvented by creating over 700 public authorities with credit cards whose maximum balances are whatever sums Wall Street bankers are willing to lend. And why should they be any more careful with the state than they were with Enron, Global Crossing, WorldCom or any other firms favored by men trying to get their daughters into the right nursery school?

At this time, the City of New York has the smallest structural imbalance of the three levels, but rising pension, debt service and labor costs rapidly increase the gap between receipts and expenditures. We gamble on continuing good times, but in the event of an economic downturn or a terror attack, the city will be hit severely. In framing budgets, we must anticipate bad times as well as continuing prosperity.

The test of the mayor and the budget will come next year, when the preliminary budget for the 2007-2008 fiscal year must be presented. Watching the budget process is like watching Evel Knievel drive his motorcycle over a row of parked trucks. It is remarkable that he does it year after year, but is there a day of reckoning ahead?

An election-year budget tests the limits of restraint and responsibility by public officials. The month of June will show us whether these limits have been breached.
Henry Stern: starquest@nycivic.org

Not4Publication.com by Dom Nunziato
Michael Schenkler can be reached via this contact form.