So New York is finally a Democratic State you say.

Well, somehow the Dems find ways to quickly give back what they spent many years acquiring.

Okay, we often just guess in politics.

Being a columnist, pundit or real insider requires you to play the “what if” game.

You have to consider a whole lot of conditional possibilities, figure people are keeping their cards close to the vest and, when they start to play, you have to read their hands – and figure out how the people will react.

You also have to figure out how a not-so-united Democratic Party can take the best case scenario and watch it all drift away.

And so, based on little evidence or inside knowledge, we look Statewide and ask “what if?”

What if Anthony Weiner’s “sabbatical” from the Mayor’s race is the beginning of a 2010 Weiner for U.S. Senate run?

With newly appointed U.S. Senator Kristen Gilibrand perceived as pro gun and pro tobacco – even though she is moving to the left daily – we expect to see her challenged in a primary. After all, anyone who was handed a seat by an accidental governor – or even an elected governor – deserves a challenge. But if you take the gal who got the seat after the seeming bashing of an iconic Kennedy and couple with that her record on gun control and tobacco being out of step with an overwhelming majority of state voters, you can count on a primary. Then, listen to the electeds who are critical of her (former) pro-gun stance start yelling about her lack of commitment and loyalty when she begins to move closer to their position; you can bet that the party will be far from united in defending her brief incumbency.

Gilibrand’s best bet for election in 2010 is that there is a large field challenging her for the Democratic nomination. Long Island’s fast moving Congressman Steve Israel is out raising money for a challenge. Manhattan Congresswoman Carolyn Maloney has indicated her interest. Congresswoman Carolyn McCarthy has made it clear that she will run or back a challenger on the gun issue alone.

There are of course others, including some real heavyweights.

Andrew Cuomo, presently the most electable person in the State, could go for Senator if he decides challenging David Paterson would be perceived negatively after his failed run at Carl McCall in ’06.

Nassau County Exec Tom Suozzi is a formidable figure for any statewide office. We’d expect the state’s hardest campaigner to go for Governor or Senator – the one that Andrew Cuomo doesn’t, although a vacant Attorney General’s post which launched both Spitzer and Cuomo, would be a natural for him.

But you can count on Ms. Gilibrand being challenged and challenged hard. And unless there is more than one challenger, we’re picking the other guy (or gal) in the race to win.

But knowing the Dems, watch for more than one.

And then “what if” Gilibrand survives her Democratic test due to multiple challengers or Chuck Schumer or the advantage of incumbency or even dumb luck?

Then, look out for the GOP to have a proven election star waiting for the damaged prey – what is George Pataki doing now?

Yes, our new junior Senator has another year before she is in the heat of the fray, but she’s had a lifetime to establish that she is out of step with most New Yorkers on some real important issues.

And her political rabbi, a fill-in governor, has not much better of a chance of surviving the 2010 election, based on what we’ve seen so far.

Paterson will likely be tested in a Democratic Primary by Andrew Cuomo or Tom Suozzi. That is, if the New York Democratic establishment doesn’t draft Cuomo and convince the accidental Governor that his talents are better used elsewhere. The guy should have appointed himself U.S. Senator and let chaos ensue in the State government. After all, things are no better right now.

Yup, we think it will take major league repair and turn-around for David Paterson to win over the Democratic voters of this State. Don’t hold your breath.

And should that miracle occur, Rudy Giuliani might just be there sitting and smiling. The GOP is looking forward to 2010.

And the fabled victory of 2008 where the Dems finally captured the State Senate for the first time since a brief stint in ’65 could also be a passing fancy.

The Dems are delivering an on-time budget, but that’s about it.

They have continued the worst of what dysfunctional Albany has to offer.

Although the budget is not yet passed as of this writing, a brief look at it and the process reveals: It was three men in a room – all Dems; zero transparency; the minority party was entirely excluded; in the middle of a recession, spending is up almost 9%; billions in new taxes are being levied on an overburdened population; they keep their precious member items ($170 million worth) but cut critical aid; and the only saving factor is that they made ends meet by using $7 billion of Federal stimulus money.

The Albany joke continues and sadly, it is those in office who are laughing at us.

And you can bet the the Republicans will blame it all on the Dems in the 2010 election. And you know what, it was the Dems who did it all.

Yes, Queens’ Malcolm Smith is the new one of the three men in the room, but we’re afraid that the stench seems to be unchanged.

While this is the first time in our memory that the Democratic Party in New York State holds both U.S. Senate seats, the Governor, Comptroller, Attorney General and control both houses of the legislature, the future in New York does not look so great for the Democratic party.

As a matter of fact, it doesn’t look so good for the people either.

MSchenkler@QueensTribune.com