....February 6, 5:31 PM
 
 
 
After The Presidential Primary, Political Life Goes On

By MICHAEL SCHENKLER

Boom!

One thing is over; another begins.

As we watched the results of Super Tuesday, not only were we all cheering for our favorites – not quite as intently as we cheered for the Giants on Sunday – the ’08 local candidates were solidifying their efforts and imagining the impact the Presidential race will have on their elections.

In Queens, with 25 State legislative seats up for election, we anticipate contests in only three. The 18 incumbent Democratic Assembly members will receive only nominal challenges at best, from a weak Queens GOP.

State Senate in ‘08
State Senator John Sabini can expect another vigorous challenge from City Councilman Hiram Monserrate in what will be the best Queens primary to watch in September.

In another primary, look for Dem Albert Baldeo, who ran effectively against State Senator Serf Maltese two years ago, attempting to stave off the popular onslaught of City Councilman Joe Addabbo, Jr, the organizational choice to capture the Maltese Senate seat for the Dems. The November election for the New York State Senate will only be
slightly behind the presidential election in import with the Dems looking for the top-of-the-ticket boost to help them capture two seats from the Republicans and take control of the Senate for the first time in just about anyone’s memory. This seat is the top of the list “A” contests.

Republican State Senator Frank Padavan will also receive a challenge for a sitting councilmen, but Jim Gennaro is not given as much a chance of unseating the popular senator in spite of an anticipated overwhelming Democratic turnout as a result of the presidential race. Call this a “B” contest at best.

The real multiple action is in the Queens struggle for the 13 Council seats which will be vacant in 2009 due to term limits.

Initial perusal shows us some races to watch and other quietly, rising stars for the 2009 election where all Queens seats (except Tom White’s) will be vacant because of term limits.

RACES TO WATCH
The 19th Council District (presently Tony Avella’s seat), will pit Paul Vallone, of the powerful and popular Vallone clan, against the community board’s Jerry Iannece. Paul is a resident of this east Queens District and chose to run at home as opposed to continuing the long-standing family tradition of an Astoria councilmember named Vallone. Others mentioned include Debbie Markel, John Franks, and Steve Behar.

In the 24th CD, watch three mighty political clubs compete to replace Jim Gennaro. Mike Simanowitz will run with the support of his co-leader Assemblywoman Nettie Mayoerson out of the Stevenson Democratic Club, Martha Taylor co-leader of Councilman David Weprin out of the Weprin Club and longtime Dem operative Jeff Gottlieb out of former Councilman Morty Povman’s JFK Club will likely square off in a maxed-out contest of regular Dems.

In the 29th CD (Melinda Katz’s seat), former Councilwoman and Deputy Beep Karen Koslowitz will be the favorite but expect former Assemblyman Mike Cohen with the rumored support of Melinda Katz’s club to be in the fray. Lynn Shulman who ran previously has also thrown her hat into the ring.

RISING STARS
In the 23rd CD, Dale Nussbaum is about to announce her candidacy. With a background working as a community liaison in education, government and labor, as well as an impressive personal network (disclosure: her husband is associate publisher of this paper), Dale will quickly rise to the top of the field which includes co-op leader Bob Friedrich and Dave Kerpin.

Longtime gay activist and now Democratic regular, District Leader Danny Dromm leads the field as the likely heir to the seat held by Helen Sears in the 25th. With Bryan PuFolkes and Alfonso Quiroz both mentioned as possible candidates, it seems it may take a return from the State Senate by John Sabini to cause the Dromm train from stalling.

Watch Brian Simon in the 27th to take Leroy Comrie’s seat. He’s off, running and looks like he’s in control.
Likewise Elizabeth Crowley, cousin to County Leader Joe, is off to an impressive fundraising start as the likely Democratic candidate to this Republican seat held by Dennis Gallagher in the 30th.

CHANGING PLACES
Watch the 22nd Council District seat held by Peter Vallone Jr. where we expect Assemblyman Mike Gianaris to leave the dismal Albany existence and look to take part in a governmental body which really works. The highly regarded fundraiser is rumored to be looking for a shot at becoming speaker of the council but that’s likely a stretch for a newcomer from a Borough who likes to play for committee chairs for all of its members.

There are a more seats and many more candidates and as the clock continues to tick towards the big citywide election of 2009, we will keep you informed as people throw their hats into the ring and maneuver in the game.
Candidates are invited to put us on their mail and/or email list.

Just because the presidential primary in New York is over, it doesn’t mean the political junkies have nothing to talk about.

MSchenkler@QueensTribune.com

 
 
How Will the Presidential Race Affect State Senate?

By Henry J. Stern

Can Sophomore Spitzer Recover?

The start of the month is a good time to look around, review what happened last month and what is likely to happen in the next four weeks.

America in general, and the political community in particular, are preoccupied with the national election.  Every four years they change the rules, and the innovation in 2008 is an early Super Tuesday, coming just two days after the Super Bowl.  We go in for superlatives, in sports and politics as well as in business and life.
Dozens of pundits and prophets describe the action each day, and it would be superfluous for us to join them. 

Day One – Everything changes

Day 397 – Pretty much the same

Governor Spitzer delivered his State of the State message on Jan. 9, and his proposed executive budget for fiscal 2009 on Jan. 22. The budget increase of 5.3 percent was more modest than last year’s 7.8 percent, but is likely to be increased by the legislature, particularly for their member items (the equivalent of Congressional earmarks) which direct goodies to individual districts. Member items are not intrinsically evil, but the way they are handed out by legislative leaders on the basis of party membership and obedience is distasteful. It is an outrage when a company that receives a member item employs a legislator (or his girlfriend) who secured the item for them, but it is alleged that such a practice is not unknown at the capitol. Senator Efrain Gonzales (D-Bx) has been indicted on related charges.

The governor’s influence has been sharply reduced as the result of an unfortunate first year marked by intemperate statements, the botched attempt on Senator Bruno’s career, and errors in judgment. The governor’s new staff will minimize such blunders this year. Spitzer has most likely been chastened by his sharp decline in the polls. He attributes that to his standing up for principle. If he really believes that, he is in trouble.

The national elections will divert a lot of attention from state issues this year. Hopefully it will be a year of healing. Unfortunately, healing usually means consolidating the victory of the status quo over any reformist notions the governor had before he came to grief. As usual, we wish him all the best. We also defend him from the kangaroo court of Senate Republicans. Even if he did what he was accused of, their ethical standards are lower than his, at least so far.

The possibility is increasing (as of this writing) of a presidential campaign between Senator McCain and Senator Clinton, although Senator Obama, whose fortunes have been rising, cannot be counted out. Despite the fact that New York is a blue state, and our home Senator is likely to carry it, McCain should run well enough, particularly upstate, so that a turnover of the State Senate cannot be assumed.

Hillary has been called a New Yorker out of opportunity, rather than birth, but that is unfair.

She was born and raised in Illinois, attended college in Massachusetts (Wellesley), went to law school in Connecticut (Yale), worked in the District of Columbia, lived for years in Arkansas, where she practiced law, moved back to the District of Columbia for eight years when she was First Lady, and then moved to New York, settling in Chappaqua. That’s one of the great things about our country, you can go to different states for different reasons.

Pat Moynihan, for example, was born in Tulsa, Oklahoma, and was a professor at Harvard University in Massachusetts. After serving in Washington, D.C., he came to New York, where he was defeated in the Democratic primary for city council president in 1965.

Bobby Kennedy was from Massachusetts, lived in Virginia for many years, and came to New York State just in time to run for the Senate in 1964.

Richard Nixon, having been defeated in his race for Governnor of California, moved to New York City in 1963 and ran for the presidency from 810 Fifth Avenue here.
If you are looking for political pedigrees, you will find them in the Adams, Bush, Harrison and Roosevelt families. They all had two Presidents. It’s not that much of a new thing.

The late Speaker of the House, Tip O’Neill (D-Mass) is credited with the saying, “All politics is local.” Under that rule, New Yorkers have two concerns: 1) Will the Democrats take over the State Senate, and 2) If Hillary is elected, who will Governor Spitzer appoint to the Senate?
StarQuest@NYCivic.org

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