The last week was one that few of us will ever forget. The overwhelming images of New Orleans, the Superdome, the devastation, the incredible conditions, some incredible behavior, the despair and our hope and prayers overshadowed anything else that might have been on the news pages.

The New York City Primary Election campaign fell victim to the compelling call of Katrina’s wake. With rescue and recovery now effectively underway, with many of the untold stories of tragedy and valor still to be written, with clean up perhaps beginning and with conceivably hundreds of thousands in need of relocation and help, the Mayoral Primary campaign, the Council races, next Tuesday’s New York Primary election will continue to be relegated to some place well behind the Katrina-aftermath-occupied front lobe.

If you haven’t read it before – or thought about it – this is the second Mayoral Primary in a row where tragedy of immense proportion has caused the voters minds to be elsewhere on Primary Day. Four years ago, the New York City Primary was scheduled for Sept. 11, 2001. The Primary was delayed several weeks but its import was clearly overshadowed by the city’s and nation’s tragedy.

Although far from the city and not causing a rescheduling, the Primary Race this year matters a lot less than it might have in a time without Katrina. And if people are looking for another something to focus on, the death of William Rehnquist will give newspaper readers the additional opportunity to review his life and read the bios and records of those being touted to join the court.

The other factor enabling or causing this city’s news watchers’ eyes to wander is apparently a lackluster field of Democratic candidates and satisfaction with the performance of the incumbent. It is the job of the challengers to point out the differences between what the Mayor has done and what they would do. Making that case becomes difficult when the incumbent has performed to the satisfaction of a significant majority of the voters. It becomes near impossible when the incumbent’s performance has satisfied the voters and something else has come along to capture the reader’s or viewer’s eyes. Welcome Katrina’s aftermath.

So, we ask: What will the effect of this confluence of factors cause on the outcome of Tuesday’s Primary?
Lower turnout is the clearest result. Those that are more likely to stay home are the less involved — those without a single overriding cause or reason. Ethnic voters and one-issue voters will most likely turn out, Katrina or not. Those Dems satisfied – or sort of satisfied — with the incumbent’s performance will have less reason to put the Primary to the front of their consciousness.

This accrues greatly to Freddy Ferrer, the Dem’s clear frontrunner. With 40 percent needed to avoid a run-off and Ferrer, who was once thought of as having a shot at that number, having in recent weeks settled in the various polls in the mid–to–lower end of the 30 percent range – it just wasn’t in the cards.

But Freddy voters will come to the polls. His Latino base is motivated and their group is ethnically less involved than others in the pain and suffering in the Gulf States. We don’t see many or any Latinos being interviewed in New Orleans, Mississippi or in search of family members from whom they’ve been separated.

With or without distraction, the Latino turnout should reach an all-time high. Freddy’s results therefore climb upward towards that magic 40 percent figure. Now, as the total universe of voters decreases because of Katrina distraction, and Freddy’s solid block remains constant, the mathematic result is clear – a constant numerator and decreasing denominator yields an increasing percentage. Watch Freddy’s late poll numbers, among likely voters, climb high into the 30’s – and then watch him scurry for 40 percent.

The number two slot – insignificant if Freddy gets 40 percent — is still up for grabs.

Giff Miller has the most money to deliver a late message and get out the vote. However, as we’ve indicated before, we believe his ill-gotten funds previously spent from the City Treasury, his shady Campaign Finance and Council reporting of monies spent, has shown him to be an unethical candidate who will break or change the rules for his own purposes. His money won’t buy him love.

C. Virginia Fields has the advantage of the most action in her borough of Manhattan. An active eight-person Beep race, a very high profile DA campaign and a number of serious Council races should increase Manhattan turnout.
On the other hand, New Orleans and the Katrina catastrophe seem to play most upon her base. The devastation and slow relief effort has impacted African Americans the most. One might conclude that their group would be more occupied in the aftermath and less likely to vote.

Anthony Weiner, the least known of the four, has been coming on strong. His issue–oriented campaign has struck a chord with those who are listening and reading. But will they be listening and reading when the faces of misery are staring at them from the Gulf States?

We don’t expect any surprises in the campaign, so look to outside factors to determine who will show at the polls.
As we sit here and write this on Sunday of the Labor Day weekend, we are inclined to predict – for the first time since the campaign began – that Freddy Ferrer could walk away with it all at 40 percent. The number two, three and four will then remain footnotes and blurry names somewhere buried in the encyclopedia of New York City. Note: What Democrats challenged Ruth Messinger when she won the Primary to face Rudy only eight years ago? This year’s Primary losers face the same oblivion. So did Ruth.

I’m 10 days out and this is my last chance to predict and have you read it – ah, the advantage of daily papers. I should take a pass – but I’m having fun: Freddy very close at 38 percent; Anthony, Virginia and Giff separated by fewer than 6 points from top to bottom with voter turnout -- not campaign message -- deciding their order.

My message to you: it takes only 10 to 15 minutes, please vote! This year, it certainly could make a difference. So vote -- your future might depend on it.

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The other races . . .
Predictions in the other races, is really easy. In this city – or make that this state or perhaps this country – incumbents always win . . . with very few exceptions. The incumbent Public Advocate Betsy Gottbaum will prevail, all Queens Council members facing challengers will win with the exception of Allan Jennings in the 28th who has crossed the line of behavioral sanity and will be beaten – but only by a tiny bit. We New Yorkers love incumbents – especially when they’re ours. Perhaps the whole city is nearsighted.

Michael Schenkler can be reached via this contact form.