By MICHAEL SCHENKLER

Let me begin with a disclaimer: this column is all conjecture. There is nothing in the sequences proposed here that has been researched, verified or even asked of the principals in the scenario described. However, we believe that the political process presented below is the stuff borough politics is made of.

We have created a scenario - a sequence of political chess moves - which we think typifies the process as played by the borough powerbrokers, insiders, pundits and political junkies.

We share it, not to judge the process, but to provide our readers with insight which may help them understand local political clubs, elected officials, the political party and mostly the political process.

And with the final disclaimer that many of the characters in this political story are friends and all are basically good people, let's play "Political What If."

Queens Democratic County Leader Congressman Joe Crowley is the new party boss in Queens. The party is at peace and Joe is popular and unchallenged. He remains so as long as his elected officials remain elected and he has a small handful of jobs and judgeships to share with the stronger District Leaders who keep him atop the party.

Crowley, like all other elected officials, place their own reelection on top of their wish list, which they want to be easy.

Queens Councilman Hiram Monserrate has been a Latino Democratic powerhouse in Queens who is often at odds with the regular Democratic organization. He has, on more than one occasion, begun to organized a challenge for Crowley's Congressional seat, believing he could be competitive in both Crowley's Queens District, which includes much of his Council District and many Latinos, but also in the larger part of Crowley's district in the Bronx which has a large Latino voting block.

Now with the advantage of incumbency, fund raising and district-wide name recognition, no one would predict a Monserrate upset. However, it could be a bloody and unpleasant fight for the popular Queens County Leader. Something he obviously would rather avoid. Now there is no present talk of a Monserrate challenge to Crowley this year, but if Crowley can help find a place for the '09 term-limited Councilman, he would likely score enough political points so as to assure Monserrate's support in his reelection campaigns. Hopefully such a peace would last until the next reapportionment where Crowley, using his County Leader's hat, could have lines drawn more to his liking and solidify his district against an ethnic challenge. Also, taking care of a renegade Dem and bringing him into the party fold, is what County Leaders do when they can't beat back the renegade.

Two years ago, Monserrate challenged State Senator John Sabini and came only a handful of votes (242) from beating him. This year, Monserrate is organizing another challenge against Sabini who has been weakened by an Albany DWI conviction.

Now if Crowley and the guys who run the Queens Democratic Party - Jerry Sweeney, Mike Reich and Frank Bolz - can find a place for longtime Dem Sabini - who served as County Leader for six months between Donald Manes and Tom Manton - allowing Monserrate to be their choice and thus an easy win for State Senate, Monserrate would help Crowley with the Latinos and perhaps be a more loyal party member.

Sabini, who certainly must be very, very concerned about a Monserrate challenge would likely welcome an alternative elected office if offered. Sabini was term limited out of the Council in 2001 but is eligible to return. But alas, the seat won't be vacated until a year after Sabini's State Senate reelection unless incumbent Helen Sears resigns.

Sears, who is term limited in 2009 has talked about a borough president run, most likely to encourage the party bosses to find her a good position. In Queens, such plums could be Deputy Borough President or head of Community Boards, both jobs are appointed by the Borough President and both jobs are presently held by former Councilwoman Karen Koslowitz.

Now Koslowitz, who is planning to run for her old council seat, which will be vacated by Melinda Katz, term limited at the end of 2009 - was like Sabini term limited out of that seat in 2001. In order to raise money for her race, for which she expects the support of the party, city rules will require Koslowitz to resign and leave her Deputy Borough Presidency vacanct.

Should Koslowitz resign before the Senate petition process, would Helen Sears resign from the Council and be appointed to replace Koslowitz (either as Deputy Beep or as Head of Planning Boards) with the expectation of keeping the job should the Dem County candidate win the Borough Presidency)?

That would enable Sabini to run for and fill the Council vacancy in a Special Election and rerun in 2009 as an incumbent, thus leaving the Senate seat sitting there for Monserrate's taking.

Now the Deputy Borough Presidency is tossed around as the plum to get a candidate out of the Borough President race. But history does show the job can be split into two. There is the Deputy Beep and the Head of Community Boards - either of which could pay a salary to attract a soon-to-be out of work councilmember.

In summary, what if:

The Party bosses convince Karen Koslowitz to resign by the summer to fundraise and organize for her 2009 council race for which they would support her; Helen Sears resigns from the Council to fill the Koslowitz vacancy by appointment; John Sabini runs for the Sears vacated council seat; Hiram Monserrate runs for the vacant Sabini State Senate seat and peace prevails throughout central Queens and the Democratic Party Leaders have kept all insiders happy.

Conjecture?

Absolutely!

Some truth as to how the game is played?

Stay tuned!

MSchenkler@QueensTribune.com