By MICHAEL SCHENKLER

Saturday, November 11: Still no President — the adventure continues.

If this were almost any other country in the world, troops would be marching: "Jim Baker orders Bush Army to Washington. Dick Cheney sets up command center." But there are no such concerns here. Win, lose or draw, the institution will survive . . . and flourish.

Third world nations, former dictatorships, unstable and budding democracies have fallen under a lot less confusion and indecision. Fictional candidates in Hollywood-created banana republics seize such opportunities to grab power. And although the rhetoric between the Bush and Gore camps is heating up, the most violent confrontations we can anticipate will be a war of words and lawyers.

And maybe brains . . . .

Now, it is only Saturday — this column hits the streets Thursday — and lots can change. But as it appears to this observer now, some smart strategist/lawyer on the Gore team could have outthought the other guys and possibly made the definitive move and win the Election. Let me explain.

To make matters worse, the ballot design for Palm Beach County seems to violate Florida election regulations. Punch outs are supposed to be to the right of the candidate’s name. The party receiving the second highest vote total in the last gubernatorial race (The Democrats) are supposed to have the second ballot position. Clearly, Al Gore’s name is second but you must use the third punch out to vote for him since Pat Buchanan’s punch out is to the left (not right) of his name. Granted the ballots were available before the election and there were no objections. However, some 19,000 double votes in Palm Beach County may be attributed to the legal fallacy in ballot design. Should the voters there be deprived of participating in the election? The Courts will decide.

I’m getting my info from the tube — CNN, FNC, MSNBC and the like — the Saturday Times is way behind the curve. Things are just happening so fast — perhaps too fast for this column draft to survive the test of a handful of days.

But here we sit Saturday evening and I have spotted what could be the coup de grace of the war. Let me establish the timetable.

We knew (as if anything is for certain in this election) that the winner of the popular vote in Florida would get the state’s 25 electoral votes and have a majority of the Electoral College and become president. Now, all the other little changes, challenges and threats are unlikely to have any real effect on the selection of president — only Florida.

Okay, we’ve established the battleground.

On Tuesday election night, the networks called Florida an early win for Gore. Then reversed their call. Then it appeared to be in the Bush column and finally too close to call. When the dust settled, Bush was reported up by 1,700+ votes. The Dems demanded a recount under Florida Law and got it. Although the official announcement is procedurally tied up, Bush won the recount by 300ish votes. That was last Thursday afternoon.

Prior to the weekend, a batch of citizens filed lawsuits in Palm Beach County, Florida. I say batch because that number has been reported from 5 to 9. The suits seem to be initiated by Democrats, who claim the illegal printing of the ballot deprived them of their right to have their votes counted properly.

The Bush folks decried the use of the courts to try to win the election. Citing the statesmanlike nobility of Richard Nixon, they say allow the current total to stand and maintain the integrity of the process. The people should decide, the Bush folks said, not the courts.

Then, on Friday, I believe, the Gore guys asked for a hand recount in three or four counties, as was their right under election law. Appropriate precincts were selected and today (Saturday) hand recounting commenced.

Quickly to court flew Jim Baker and the Bush bunch. Stop the hand count, they cried. Even though permitted by Florida election Law, Baker insisted machine counting is better. Therefore, he asked the Federal Court to overturn Florida Law and prohibit hand-counting. Now, the counties in which hand-counting was taking place were all Democratic counties. And it was likely, that many votes not picked up by machine could be counted by hand.

You see, with punch ballots (Palm Beach County), sometimes the little thingy doesn’t always fall through and remains attached to the ballot. This "chad," as it is called, often prevents the machine from recording the vote. But when the hand-counter holds the ballot card to the light, and light passes around the punched hole of the partially removed chad, Florida Election Commissioners decided that the will of the voter can be determined and therefore the vote counted. There was an extended discussion of this issue but the Commissioners reached a decision. You can’t count it if the Chad is dimpled, only if the chad has been disconnected enough to allow light to shine through — a hanging chad. There are canvassers from both parties present participating and agreeing on this process as prescribed by law.

The canvassers were, under law, to review precincts selected by the Dems, which amounted to 1% of the countywide vote. In Palm Beach they selected four precincts to determine if a hand-recount would affect the outcome.

So now, it seems that the Gore guys may have an advantage. The counties they selected because of (get this one) "anomalies" (irregularities to us normal folk) in the process would likely produce additional Democratic margins upon hand-count. So why didn’t the Bush folks identify Republican Counties with "anomalies?"

They missed the deadline. Yup, you gotta ask for the hand-count within 72 hours and the Friday night deadline was past. So all that was left for the Bush and Baker boys was to go to court to try to overturn the Florida law. Hmm! Wonder what brother Jeb thinks?

So the guys who criticized the Gore group for talking lawsuit, were the first into court and now are threatening additional court action in other states. This is not a question of preserving the institution of the presidency; this is a question of winning.

And as of this moment, Saturday night, the best move in the presidential campaign has been the Democratic timing of their request for a hand recount.

Now, five other factors deserve mentioning.

1) There is still a large batch of overseas absentee ballots to be counted in Florida. They usually are predominantly military voters and traditionally Republican. So even the holds are on hold while hand-counts, recounts and courts run the process; there are still the overseas absentees to confound the confused.

2) Brother Jeb. Yup, the Governor of Florida is the Brother of Dubya. What does this mean? We’re not quite sure. But scrutiny will take on new meaning, as Florida is the focus of the universe.

3) Other states are awfully close and could be revisited. However, it appears the total swing possible would not affect the outcome.

4) A judge, on a batch of levels, can still throw a monkey wrench into this zoo-like election. If you think it’s confusing now, wait till the lawyers get their turn.

5) This year, George W. Bush, signed into law in the State of Texas, a law providing for hand-recount in his state.

Sunday November 12: Still no President — the adventure continues.

Was up last night (this morning) at 2:30 a.m. watching the Palm Beach County Election Commissioners announce the result of their canvass of 1% of the vote and proceed, based on that number, to call a countywide hand recount — some 440,000 ballots. It seems the 1% recount increased Al Gore’s margin by 19 votes (he got 33 more and Bush 14) in Palm Beach County. Extrapolating it to a countywide figure, it could be a 1,900 vote swing thus affecting the outcome in Florida and the nation. Under Florida law, the three commissioners by a 2-1 vote called for the hand recount of all Palm Beach County ballots.

Now, Palm Beach (and I believe one other county) will be hand-recounted starting Monday. The courts still could be heard from. The overseas absentee ballots must be counted. The several lawsuits against the controversial butterfly ballot, which seemingly violates Florida Election Law, still must be addressed.

Simply explained, the Palm Beach ballot (pictured on this page) is supposed to have
a punch out to the right of the name and Al Gore is supposed to be the second name. However, to vote for Al Gore you had to
punch the third punch-out; the second belonged to Pat Buchanan whose punch-out was to the left (not right) of his name. Hmmm! This matter was not considered in the recount and only the courts can act on this. It doesn’t seem likely.

The issue, to this writer is clear. To both sides, it is not a question of procedure; it is not a question of sanctity of the process; it is a question of winning or losing. Those aloof elitists citing the nobility of Richard Nixon not going to court against John Kennedy are as absurd as James Baker calling for the Gore folks to stay out of court and then running there himself.

Now don’t get me wrong. You read the above and know which side I’m on. However, I readily admit that the Gore guys are playing by no higher standards than the Bush guys — and where are the women? If the lead shoe were on the Gore foot and not the Bush foot, it would stink there too. Neither side is nobler — should they be?

The process becomes politicized. The courts become involved.

The talk shows continue to spin. The former Secretaries of State continue to spin. The lawyers continue to spin. Our heads continue to spin.

And the process goes on.

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Michael Schenkler can be reached at: MSchenkler@QueensTribune.com

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